Colchester, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

204
FXUS61 KBTV 011822
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
222 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today should be mostly dry, though showers will arrive this evening
for northern and upslope areas. After these move out overnight, dry
weather should generally prevail through midweek, and it will be
accompanied by a drastic warming trend. By Wednesday, temperatures
will be approaching record highs in some areas. The next shower
chances are late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Sunday...Scattered showers persist across the
forecast area this afternoon, and while you might see ray of
sunshine at times this afternoon, most of the time one can
expect mostly cloudy skies today.

Previous Forecast...Upslope showers are lingering along the
western slopes but they will gradually diminish during the rest
of the night. Snow levels likely range between 3,000 and 4,000
feet, with the lower values over northern New York and the
higher values over Vermont. Whiteface at around 3,000 feet is 33
degrees while Mansfield at around 3,000 feet is 37 degrees.
Snow levels should drop a bit more as the night goes on. Raw
model soundings generally have the freezing levels drop to
around 1,000 feet above SLK and 2,500 ft above BTV by morning,
but those may be overdoing the cold air slightly. These snow
levels will not end up being that significant because profiles
continue to dry for the rest of the night so there may not be
any precipitation once the coldest air arrives. These snow
levels will gradually rise during the day today and they should
mostly be above summit levels by evening, and they will stay
that way, possibly for the rest of the season. Mostly dry
weather will prevail through the morning and into the afternoon,
before a shortwave passes through in the evening and
reinvigorates the showers a bit. The showers will be mostly
confined to northern and upslope areas. They will continue for
much of the night before gradually tapering off late in the
night and early Monday morning. The large scale trough stays
over the region through Monday but atmospheric profiles will dry
considerably. There will still be cold air aloft for the time
of year, so a spot shower cannot be completely ruled out in the
afternoon, but with so much dry air in the lower levels, even if
something forms it may not even reach the ground. This chance
should be mostly limited to the Northeast Kingdom. With clouds
and showers on Sunday, temperatures again will be confined to
the 50s to around 60, but with drier conditions on Monday,
temperatures will reach the 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 AM EDT Sunday...A period of quiet wx anticipated as ridging
both aloft and at the sfc expands acrs the Mid Atlantic into the NE
CONUS. This area of high pres wl result in dry conditions and
warming temps thru the short term. Progged 925mb temps btwn 17-19C
for Tues support highs mid 70s to lower 80s. Based on this have
blended the NBM deterministic guidance with some 75th percentile for
highs on Tues. Lows on Monday range from near 40F SLK/NEK to 50F
SLV/CPV, but as southerly flow develops much warmer lows are
expected on Tues night with values in the 50s to lower 60s. One
other item to watch, is the potential for high level smoke from
fires in Manitoba, Canada, which may provide some filtered sunshine
on Tues. Latest smoke progs have greatest impacts to our west attm,
but as trof departs and ridge builds a period of northwest winds
could advect some high lvl smoke toward our cwa.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Sunday...A period of above normal temps are expected
on Weds into Thurs with increasing humidity values, especially on
Thurs into Friday. Crnt guidance suggests Weds wl be the warmest and
driest day in the extended as progged 925mb temps warm btwn 21-23C.
This combined with good mixing of drier air toward the sfc wl result
in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s. Warmest values in southwest
downslope areas, eastern Dacks/western CPV. Have trended toward the
NBM 75th percentile for highs and 10th percentile for sfc dwpts on
Weds. Sounding analysis shows deep dry adiabatic mixing, which
should help with transfer of drier air near 850mb toward the sfc.

As south to southwest flow strengthens around high pres both at the
sfc and aloft, deeper moisture wl be advecting toward our cwa on
Thurs into Friday. Progged pw values wl climb btwn 1.50 and 1.75"
ahead of an approaching frnt, with sfc dwpts warming into the 60s.
As boundary interacts with increasing heating/moisture and
associated instability the potential for scattered showers/storms wl
be increasing late Thurs into Friday. Still some uncertainty on
timing of best mid lvl forcing and axis of deepest moisture, as GFS
is 12 to 18 hours faster than the ECMWF. For now have chc pops on
Thurs with likely pops on Friday, especially during the aftn hours.
If a slower solution is realized, temps wl be 3 to 5 degrees warmer
on Friday with potential for greater instability. For now have highs
mid 70s to mid 80s with upper 80s acrs the lower CT River Valley.
Still some hints on boundary paralleling the mid/upper lvl flow
aloft and remaining nearby our cwa as we head into next weekend.
This would support some unsettled wx but confidence in timing and
placement of precip is low attm, as predictability in boundary
position and movement is low. Highs drop back toward normal with
above average lows given clouds and higher sfc dwpts. A couple of
very mild nights are possible Weds and Thurs as southerly winds,
clouds and warming sfc dwpts limit cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Ceilings are a mix of VFR and MVFR
levels this afternoon across the forecast area as light
scattered showers continue which have not been causing
visibilities to decrease drastically. Instead, we expect
ceilings to be the main force behind conditions wobbling between
VFR and MVFR over the next 24 hours. Thinking most sites will
prefer VFR except SLK and EFK, which could have lingering MVFR
through about 12Z Monday. On and off showers are possible this
afternoon and overnight tonight, especially for northern sites.
After 12Z Monday, we`re forecasting clearing skies and improving
conditions. Southwesterly to westerly winds gusting 10-30 knots
this afternoon will decrease overnight tonight, then return
tomorrow afternoon gusts 15-20 knots for some.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Storm
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Storm